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February tested the resolve of every bitcoin holder. After grinding down from €68.000 to €54.000 and breaking through key support levels, BTC found itself in unfamiliar territory. It was caught between resistance overhead and the psychological floor of the Realized Price below. While tentative signs of stabilisation emerged by early March, conviction remains scarce across the market.

Beyond price action, the crypto world grappled with serious questions about market structure. Jane Street faced insider trading allegations tied to the Terra collapse. Iran's growing crypto economy drew fresh attention amid escalating conflict. Private credit markets began showing their first real cracks since the boom began.

Meanwhile, Blockrise pushed forward. With the launch of Secured Lending and Easy, the announcement of the partnership with Bitvavo and connecting with some of the sharpest minds in Bitcoin at the Blockstream Summit in Italy. There is growth. Through it all, Blockrise’s Fundamentals strategy held steady, outperforming Bitcoin's decline while managing risk with discipline.

Market Update

A brief analysis on Bitcoin and Blockrise Fundamentals:

Bitcoin analysis

February was a tough month for Bitcoin. BTC ground lower from roughly €63k–€68k at the start of the month to the €54k–€58k range by early March. This marked a 47% drawdown from its October 2025 all-time high. The defining moment came when price broke below the True Market Mean (around €68k), the average cost basis of active participants. This level had served as the market's floor since the ATH. That level flipped to resistance, leaving Bitcoin trapped in a corridor between ~€67k overhead and the Realised Price (~€47k) below. On-chain data shows this structure closely mirrors the first half of 2022. With roughly 9.2 million BTC now held at a loss, ETF flows persistently negative, and large holders showing passivity rather than accumulation, the market clearly lacks conviction. By early March, there were tentative signs that the worst of the selling pressure was fading. Spot sell-side activity was easing and momentum indicators were lifting off their lows. However, these look more like exhaustion than a genuine turn. For now, the €51k–€59k demand zone is providing support. A break below it would bring the ~€47k level into focus. The data points to a market that's stabilising rather than recovering.

Fundamentals

Blockrise offers comprehensive care with its asset management strategy called "Fundamentals." This strategy involves managing assets in Bitcoin versus an euro position, reassessing and adjusting these positions monthly.

Blockrise’s portfolio strategy delivered a return of -13,66%, outperforming Bitcoin's decline of nearly 15%. Despite significant price volatility, our investment team held our Bitcoin position steady at 92,5%. The reason is straightforward: the model of Blockrise measures the intrinsic value of the Bitcoin network, which moved in parallel with market price. While Bitcoin's price declined, the degree of overvaluation remained stable. Our investment approach is built on the probability distribution of price movements and implements risk management protocols to optimize our clients' risk-to-reward profile. Our models answer a fundamental question: "Does the current value at risk align with the relative valuation of the Bitcoin network?"

Bitcoin's market price is a critical component of Blockrise’s investment decisions, but it's one factor among several. The market price contains considerable noise. It may be subject to political influences. It presents significant forecasting challenges over extended time horizons. The models of Blockrise aren't infallible, no quantitative framework is. That said, the model demonstrates a strong accuracy rate, which drives long-term performance.

Crypto Highlights

An overview of the most notable events in crypto:

Jane Street's alleged insider trading

Over the last few weeks, global newspapers have been filled with the story concerning Jane Street's involvement in the implosion of Terraform Labs in 2022. The complaint centres on the 7th of May 2022. That day, Terraform withdrew 150 million UST from Curve3pool, a decentralised exchange, as part of a liquidity migration that had not been publicly announced. Within 10 minutes, a wallet linked to Jane Street pulled 85 million UST from the same pool, the largest swap the platform had ever processed. The allegation is that this constituted non-public material information and caused a liquidity crunch for UST.

Presented this way, it sounds like a very convincing story. However, it is entirely possible that these events have nothing to do with each other. One could even argue that the transaction from Terraform was on-chain and therefore public. Many investors who were affected by the $40 billion collapse of Terraform Labs, and everything that came after, would love nothing more than for Jane Street to be the reason for their losses.

The facts are that Terraform Labs was a fraudulent scheme, where an algorithm was supposed to maintain stability when it could not. The market was craving institutional players as it matured to increase adoption. But the moment they arrive they become the ones to blame. Jane Street enters any market for one thing and one thing alone: volatility. Their business model is to exploit volatility for profit, taking a piece of your pie. Do not be deceive, Jane Street made over $4 billion in profit in 2025. They are here to win.

Iran's $7,8 billion crypto market draws fresh attention amid war

The US-Israeli war on Iran is putting renewed focus on the country's $7,8 billion cryptocurrency market. Citizens and authorities have increasingly turned to it for storing and sending money during periods of turmoil.

Analytics firms Chainalysis and Elliptic produced reports this week showing sharp spikes in outflows from Iranian crypto exchanges immediately after air strikes hit the country. The sums were paltry relative to the total market. However, they suggested that individuals are withdrawing funds for security, that government entities are doing the same to make payments that skirt sanctions, or some combination of both, according to experts.

Chainalysis determined that roughly $2,3 million left Iranian crypto exchanges during the peak hour after air strikes began, 873% above the normal average hourly amount. Elliptic observed a 700% spike in outflows from Iran's biggest crypto exchange, Nobitex. Iran's crypto market has been rapidly growing and is closely watched because of the geopolitical tensions surrounding it. Its rise in activity has also come against the backdrop of sharp currency devaluation and double-digit inflation last year, part of a deep economic crisis caused partly by international sanctions.

Macro Economy

An overview of relevant global economic events:

The great divide

Over the last few weeks, a number of prominent executives have publicly weighed in on the growing risks within private credit. The foundation for this rising discussion has been laid by several high-profile blowups over recent months. Jamie Dimon stated that financial firms are "doing dumb things" in risky lending. Blue Owl Capital Inc. decided to halt quarterly withdrawals from one of its retail funds. Danny Moses, a "Big Short" money manager, acknowledged that the current signs rhyme with the crisis of 2007. On the other hand, the CEO of Goldman Sachs does not see significant cause for concern.

Whether the true believers or the skeptics are right, it is increasingly clear that private credit is facing its first major test of confidence. The question is whether it can withstand sustained pressure from concerns that one of its favoured sectors, software, will be upended by artificial intelligence.

On the brink of an energy crisis

The war on Iran threatens to deal a severe blow to a global economy still grappling with the impact of the historic tariff hike. For Europe, sustained higher energy prices would push the economy to the brink of recession. For the US, they would place the Federal Reserve in an impossible position, caught between a war that pushes inflation higher and a president demanding that interest rates come down. For China, the end of discounted Iranian oil imports adds to the strain from Trump's tariffs and a persistent real estate collapse.

European natural gas futures increased by almost 80% as markets reacted to the war on Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, only 50 kilometres wide, has been effectively paralysed. Under normal conditions, it accounts for 25% of global oil exports, equivalent to close to 20 million barrels a day. However, due to the tension and close proximity to the conflict, Saudi Arabia has closed its largest refinery and Qatar has shuttered the world's biggest liquefied natural gas facility. In addition, China has demanded its top refiners suspend exports of diesel and gasoline as the escalating conflict disrupts the arrival of crude. Although Europe is not directly reliant on these countries for energy imports, others are, which drives up prices across the board.

Disclaimer

The lending service itself is not a MiCAR-regulated product. Bitcoin-backed loans are offered by Blockrise Lending B.V.

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Rotterdam, 9 February 2026 – Blockrise, the MiCAR-licensed Bitcoin platform based in the Netherlands, today introduces Easy Invest and its group activity Secured Lending. Through its group company Blockrise Lending B.V., private and business lenders can earn up to 6% fixed interest on EUR with Secured Lending, backed by bitcoin collateral. Blockrise also introduces Easy Invest, which automates recurring bitcoin purchases for long-term investors. Both services are available immediately.

Secured Lending

Following the successful launch of Bitcoin-backed loans in late 2025, Blockrise Lending B.V. now opens the other side of that market. With Secured Lending, lenders provide EUR to Blockrise Lending and receive a fixed interest rate in return.

Each loan issued by Blockrise Lending is secured by bitcoin collateral held in segregated wallets by Stichting Blockrise, an independent foundation. The collateral is worth at least twice the loan amount at origination and is verifiable on-chain at any time. If the value of the collateral declines, predefined margin call and liquidation protocols protect the lender's position.

Interest rates are currently up to 6% per annum, with a minimum of EUR 100,000. All terms are defined upfront in the term sheet.

The rationale behind the programme is described in the Bitcoin Lending Standards 2026, a paper published by Blockrise earlier this year. It outlines the structural properties that make bitcoin collateral different from traditional forms of security and proposes standards for responsible lending practices in this emerging market.

"After launching bitcoin-backed loans, the most common question from our network was: how do I participate as a lender? Secured Lending is our answer. It is simply EUR in and EUR out, with bitcoin working as collateral in the background. The offering was already there, now we make it public for anyone keen to participate." says Jos Lazet, CEO at Blockrise.

Easy Invest

Automated bitcoin accumulation is now brought to the clients of Blockrise Capital. Clients set up a recurring bank transfer and include a keyword in the payment reference: "autobuy" to convert deposits directly into bitcoin, or "autojoin" to allocate them to the Fundamentals Portfolio, Blockrise's managed bitcoin strategy. Each deposit is executed automatically upon receipt.

The feature is designed for long-term investors who want to build a bitcoin position gradually, without timing the market. Clients can adjust or stop at any time by changing their payment reference, and there are no additional costs involved.

Disclaimers

Secured Lending and bitcoin involve risk. The value of bitcoin can decline, and protective mechanisms do not eliminate the possibility of loss. Secured Lending is not a deposit and is not covered by any deposit guarantee scheme. This service is offered by Blockrise Lending B.V., a group company of Blockrise Capital B.V. Blockrise Lending B.V. is not regulated under MiCAR.

About Blockrise

Founded in 2017, Blockrise is a bitcoin-only platform based in Rotterdam offering custody, brokerage, asset management, legacy planning, and bitcoin-backed loans. Blockrise Capital B.V. holds a MiCAR license issued by the AFM since November 2025. Visit www.blockrise.com for more information.

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Media contact

Blockrise Group B.V. | press@blockrise.com | www.blockrise.com | +31 10 848 1741

February has tested investor resolve. After January’s 11% decline, Bitcoin shed another 12% in the opening weeks of this month. The drawdown has exposed a market in transition: long-term holders have stepped back, institutional flows have cooled, and short-term participants now dominate price action.

This edition unpacks what the data reveals about current market structure and where key support levels sit. The analysis examines how Blockrise's Fundamentals strategy has navigated the volatility and what factors inform our positioning. Beyond Bitcoin, we cover regulatory scrutiny of Trump-linked crypto ventures, Tether’s growing gold reserves, and macro forces shaping risk assets, from AI-driven market corrections to diplomatic tensions in the Middle East.

Market Update

An analysis of Bitcoin fundamentals and Blockrise's Fundamentals strategy:

Bitcoin Analysis

January’s price action told a story of exhausted momentum. Bitcoin fell 11% for the month, though a brief rally to €84k offered a glimpse of remaining demand. That bounce, however, was met with selling from holders whose cost basis sat at that level, investors who had been waiting for an exit. This dynamic, where rallies are absorbed by profit-taking rather than fuelling further gains, often characterises late-cycle behaviour.

The spot market tells a sobering story. ETF inflows, which drove much of 2024-2025’s rally, have slowed considerably. Treasury acquisitions by corporate buyers have likewise faded. Without these demand sources, the market lacks the buying pressure needed to absorb selling from long-term holders who have been distributing to short-term speculators over recent months.

Derivatives markets reflect growing caution. Open interest has declined as leveraged positions unwind, and the cost of put options has risen, traders are paying a premium for downside protection. This shift from aggressive long positioning to hedging behaviour suggests professional participants have turned defensive.

On-chain data highlights two critical zones. Short-term holders, who now dominate the market, have an average cost basis between $70k and $80k. This range represents their break-even point and historically acts as a psychological anchor. Below that, between $65k and $70k, sits a dense cluster of coins held by buyers with stronger conviction, addresses that have held through previous drawdowns. These zones often provide support during corrections, as holders at these levels tend to add to positions rather than sell.

Several conditions bear watching: whether long-term holders resume accumulation, how leverage positioning evolves, and whether institutional buyers return with meaningful size. These factors have historically preceded sustained directional moves.

Fundamentals

Blockrise offers comprehensive care with its asset management strategy called "Fundamentals." This strategy involves managing assets in Bitcoin versus an euro position, reassessing and adjusting these positions monthly.

The Fundamentals strategy declined 10% in January, followed by an additional 9% in the first week of February. These drawdowns, while significant, remain consistent with Bitcoin’s historical volatility profile. The current allocation stands at 92.5% Bitcoin and 7.5% euro, a positioning that reflects our assessment of medium-term conditions rather than short-term price movements.

The upcoming difficulty adjustment warrants attention. Projections indicate a decrease of approximately 15%, which would mark one of the larger downward adjustments in recent memory. Difficulty drops when miners leave the network, typically due to unprofitable conditions. While this can signal near-term stress, reduced difficulty also lowers the cost of production for remaining miners, a factor that has historically preceded periods of supply tightening.

Given current output from the allocation model, Blockrise is evaluating an increase in Bitcoin exposure. Our monthly rebalancing process will weigh these indicators against evolving market conditions. As always, position adjustments aim to balance opportunity with risk management.

Crypto Highlights

An overview of the most notable events in crypto:

Treasury Secretary faces questions on Trump-linked crypto venture

A congressional hearing turned contentious when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent faced questioning about potential conflicts of interest involving a cryptocurrency firm with ties to the Trump family. The House Financial Services Committee session, ostensibly focused on the Treasury’s oversight role, became a flashpoint for broader concerns about crypto regulation and political entanglement.

Representative Gregory Meeks drew attention to World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a crypto venture that reportedly received a $500 million investment from an Emirati-backed vehicle shortly before Trump’s inauguration. The investment secured a 49% stake in the company. Meeks urged Bessent to intervene in WLFI’s pending bank charter application with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency until conflict of interest concerns are addressed.

Bessent maintained that the OCC operates independently and declined to commit to any review or intervention. The exchange grew heated, with Meeks accusing the Treasury Secretary of protecting the president from scrutiny. The confrontation underscores the regulatory uncertainty facing crypto projects with political connections, a dynamic that could shape the industry’s relationship with Washington in the years ahead.

Tether becomes world’s largest private gold holder

Deep in a Swiss bunker—one of over 300,000 built during the Cold War, sits a growing stockpile that has made Tether Holdings SA the world’s largest known holder of gold outside central banks and sovereign wealth funds. The stablecoin issuer now controls approximately 140 tons of the precious metal, a position built quietly over the past year.

The accumulation has been substantial enough to move markets. Senior traders at HSBC Holdings Plc handled gold purchases for Tether throughout 2024, contributing to the metal’s 65% annual rally. Most of the hoard backs Tether’s own reserves, though a portion supports its gold-backed token product.

Tether’s gold strategy mirrors that of central banks, which have been net buyers since 2010 as they diversify away from dollar-denominated assets. For the company, gold provides a hedge against the very fiat currencies its stablecoins are pegged to, a form of insurance should dollar confidence erode. The move also addresses long-standing questions about Tether’s reserve composition, offering a tangible asset base that exists outside the traditional banking system.

Macro Economy

An overview of relevant global economic events:

The AI narrative disrupts the market

Three years of AI enthusiasm collided with market reality this week. Previous sell-offs in the sector, and there have been several since ChatGPT launched, were contained affairs. This correction was different. Over two days, hundreds of billions in market value evaporated from stocks, bonds, and loans across Silicon Valley and beyond.

The catalyst appeared modest at first. Anthropic, the AI startup behind Claude, released a legal document review tool. The product itself was incremental. But the implications were not: if AI can automate contract review, it can automate financial analysis, code review, and countless other knowledge-work functions. The message to investors was clear, the companies that have profited from selling AI infrastructure may not be the ones that profit from AI’s deployment.

Markets initially punished software stocks, then broadened the sell-off across sectors. The pattern echoes previous technology bubbles. During the dotcom era, infrastructure providers boomed as companies raced to get online, but many failed to find sustainable business models once the building phase ended. Today’s AI infrastructure giants face a similar question: what happens when the tools they’ve built become commoditised?

Earnings reports from Microsoft, Salesforce, and Alphabet have reinforced these concerns. None explicitly blamed AI for disappointing results, but the pattern is consistent: spending on AI capabilities has exceeded expectations while revenue from AI products has lagged. For Bitcoin investors, the sell-off matters because risk appetite across asset classes tends to move together. A prolonged reassessment of tech valuations could weigh on speculative assets broadly.

Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Diplomacy and military posturing are converging in the Middle East. Washington and Tehran have scheduled talks for 6 February in Oman, a venue shift from Turkey that reflects Iran’s desire to exclude regional powers from the discussion. The meeting follows weeks of escalating rhetoric, with the Trump administration threatening action in response to Iran’s crackdown on domestic protests.

The agenda centres on two issues: oil and nuclear capabilities. Iran’s preference is to focus on the former, seeking relief from sanctions that have constrained its economy. The US, represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has signalled that nuclear discussions cannot be sidelined. “For talks to lead to something meaningful, this has to be included,” Rubio stated, a position that sets up early friction given decades of deadlock on the issue.

Military forces continue to build in the region as talks approach. For markets, the situation presents tail risk. Escalation could disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending energy prices higher and reigniting inflation concerns. Conversely, a diplomatic breakthrough could ease sanctions and bring Iranian oil back to global markets, potentially pressuring prices. Bitcoin has historically shown mixed correlation with geopolitical events, sometimes rallying as an alternative to fiat currencies during instability, sometimes falling alongside broader risk-off moves.

Disclaimer

Blockrise™ is a trademark of Blockrise Capital B.V. in the Netherlands and other countries. Blockrise Capital B.V. is a private limited liability company registered in the Netherlands, under Chamber of Commerce number 74879782. Blockrise Capital B.V. holds a MiCAR licence with number 41000029, issued by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). Blockrise Lending B.V. is a group company and does not hold a MiCAR-license.

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