Market Update March 2026: Rise above the noise

February tested the resolve of every bitcoin holder. After grinding down from €68.000 to €54.000 and breaking through key support levels, BTC found itself in unfamiliar territory. It was caught between resistance overhead and the psychological floor of the Realized Price below. While tentative signs of stabilisation emerged by early March, conviction remains scarce across the market.

Beyond price action, the crypto world grappled with serious questions about market structure. Jane Street faced insider trading allegations tied to the Terra collapse. Iran's growing crypto economy drew fresh attention amid escalating conflict. Private credit markets began showing their first real cracks since the boom began.

Meanwhile, Blockrise pushed forward. With the launch of Secured Lending and Easy, the announcement of the partnership with Bitvavo and connecting with some of the sharpest minds in Bitcoin at the Blockstream Summit in Italy. There is growth. Through it all, Blockrise’s Fundamentals strategy held steady, outperforming Bitcoin's decline while managing risk with discipline.

Market Update

A brief analysis on Bitcoin and Blockrise Fundamentals:

Bitcoin analysis

February was a tough month for Bitcoin. BTC ground lower from roughly €63k–€68k at the start of the month to the €54k–€58k range by early March. This marked a 47% drawdown from its October 2025 all-time high. The defining moment came when price broke below the True Market Mean (around €68k), the average cost basis of active participants. This level had served as the market's floor since the ATH. That level flipped to resistance, leaving Bitcoin trapped in a corridor between ~€67k overhead and the Realised Price (~€47k) below. On-chain data shows this structure closely mirrors the first half of 2022. With roughly 9.2 million BTC now held at a loss, ETF flows persistently negative, and large holders showing passivity rather than accumulation, the market clearly lacks conviction. By early March, there were tentative signs that the worst of the selling pressure was fading. Spot sell-side activity was easing and momentum indicators were lifting off their lows. However, these look more like exhaustion than a genuine turn. For now, the €51k–€59k demand zone is providing support. A break below it would bring the ~€47k level into focus. The data points to a market that's stabilising rather than recovering.

Fundamentals

Blockrise offers comprehensive care with its asset management strategy called "Fundamentals." This strategy involves managing assets in Bitcoin versus an euro position, reassessing and adjusting these positions monthly.

Blockrise’s portfolio strategy delivered a return of -13,66%, outperforming Bitcoin's decline of nearly 15%. Despite significant price volatility, our investment team held our Bitcoin position steady at 92,5%. The reason is straightforward: the model of Blockrise measures the intrinsic value of the Bitcoin network, which moved in parallel with market price. While Bitcoin's price declined, the degree of overvaluation remained stable. Our investment approach is built on the probability distribution of price movements and implements risk management protocols to optimize our clients' risk-to-reward profile. Our models answer a fundamental question: "Does the current value at risk align with the relative valuation of the Bitcoin network?"

Bitcoin's market price is a critical component of Blockrise’s investment decisions, but it's one factor among several. The market price contains considerable noise. It may be subject to political influences. It presents significant forecasting challenges over extended time horizons. The models of Blockrise aren't infallible, no quantitative framework is. That said, the model demonstrates a strong accuracy rate, which drives long-term performance.

Crypto Highlights

An overview of the most notable events in crypto:

Jane Street's alleged insider trading

Over the last few weeks, global newspapers have been filled with the story concerning Jane Street's involvement in the implosion of Terraform Labs in 2022. The complaint centres on the 7th of May 2022. That day, Terraform withdrew 150 million UST from Curve3pool, a decentralised exchange, as part of a liquidity migration that had not been publicly announced. Within 10 minutes, a wallet linked to Jane Street pulled 85 million UST from the same pool, the largest swap the platform had ever processed. The allegation is that this constituted non-public material information and caused a liquidity crunch for UST.

Presented this way, it sounds like a very convincing story. However, it is entirely possible that these events have nothing to do with each other. One could even argue that the transaction from Terraform was on-chain and therefore public. Many investors who were affected by the $40 billion collapse of Terraform Labs, and everything that came after, would love nothing more than for Jane Street to be the reason for their losses.

The facts are that Terraform Labs was a fraudulent scheme, where an algorithm was supposed to maintain stability when it could not. The market was craving institutional players as it matured to increase adoption. But the moment they arrive they become the ones to blame. Jane Street enters any market for one thing and one thing alone: volatility. Their business model is to exploit volatility for profit, taking a piece of your pie. Do not be deceive, Jane Street made over $4 billion in profit in 2025. They are here to win.

Iran's $7,8 billion crypto market draws fresh attention amid war

The US-Israeli war on Iran is putting renewed focus on the country's $7,8 billion cryptocurrency market. Citizens and authorities have increasingly turned to it for storing and sending money during periods of turmoil.

Analytics firms Chainalysis and Elliptic produced reports this week showing sharp spikes in outflows from Iranian crypto exchanges immediately after air strikes hit the country. The sums were paltry relative to the total market. However, they suggested that individuals are withdrawing funds for security, that government entities are doing the same to make payments that skirt sanctions, or some combination of both, according to experts.

Chainalysis determined that roughly $2,3 million left Iranian crypto exchanges during the peak hour after air strikes began, 873% above the normal average hourly amount. Elliptic observed a 700% spike in outflows from Iran's biggest crypto exchange, Nobitex. Iran's crypto market has been rapidly growing and is closely watched because of the geopolitical tensions surrounding it. Its rise in activity has also come against the backdrop of sharp currency devaluation and double-digit inflation last year, part of a deep economic crisis caused partly by international sanctions.

Macro Economy

An overview of relevant global economic events:

The great divide

Over the last few weeks, a number of prominent executives have publicly weighed in on the growing risks within private credit. The foundation for this rising discussion has been laid by several high-profile blowups over recent months. Jamie Dimon stated that financial firms are "doing dumb things" in risky lending. Blue Owl Capital Inc. decided to halt quarterly withdrawals from one of its retail funds. Danny Moses, a "Big Short" money manager, acknowledged that the current signs rhyme with the crisis of 2007. On the other hand, the CEO of Goldman Sachs does not see significant cause for concern.

Whether the true believers or the skeptics are right, it is increasingly clear that private credit is facing its first major test of confidence. The question is whether it can withstand sustained pressure from concerns that one of its favoured sectors, software, will be upended by artificial intelligence.

On the brink of an energy crisis

The war on Iran threatens to deal a severe blow to a global economy still grappling with the impact of the historic tariff hike. For Europe, sustained higher energy prices would push the economy to the brink of recession. For the US, they would place the Federal Reserve in an impossible position, caught between a war that pushes inflation higher and a president demanding that interest rates come down. For China, the end of discounted Iranian oil imports adds to the strain from Trump's tariffs and a persistent real estate collapse.

European natural gas futures increased by almost 80% as markets reacted to the war on Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, only 50 kilometres wide, has been effectively paralysed. Under normal conditions, it accounts for 25% of global oil exports, equivalent to close to 20 million barrels a day. However, due to the tension and close proximity to the conflict, Saudi Arabia has closed its largest refinery and Qatar has shuttered the world's biggest liquefied natural gas facility. In addition, China has demanded its top refiners suspend exports of diesel and gasoline as the escalating conflict disrupts the arrival of crude. Although Europe is not directly reliant on these countries for energy imports, others are, which drives up prices across the board.

Disclaimer

The lending service itself is not a MiCAR-regulated product. Bitcoin-backed loans are offered by Blockrise Lending B.V.

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