Crisis, Correction, and Conviction

Global markets are undergoing a period of transition, marked by sharp corrections, rising interest rate pressures, and tightening liquidity. Bitcoin has fallen more than 30% since its October peak, with listed crypto companies suffering even greater losses. At the same time, Japan's central bank is signalling a potential rate hike, suggesting a shift in global monetary dynamics.

In this edition, we examine how these developments are impacting the crypto landscape, why investors are questioning the sustainability of Strategy Inc.’s model, and how our own investment approach continues to perform well in times of fear and volatility. The coming months will be critical in shaping market direction and policy responses, requiring a disciplined and adaptive outlook.

📈 Market Update

A brief analysis on Bitcoin and Blockrise Fundamentals:

Bitcoin Analysis

In November, Bitcoin’s price fell by 23%, pulling back to levels last seen in April. This sharp correction has caused uncertainty among investors, with many short-term holders selling at a loss in anticipation of further declines.

However, there are early signs that the market may be finding its footing again. Spot market flows, buying and selling of actual Bitcoin, have turned positive for the first time in weeks. In the derivatives market, indicators suggest that recent stress is easing, moving towards a more balanced sentiment. Open interest has also risen slightly, hinting at a softening in bearish outlooks.

While it’s too early to say whether a strong recovery or buying wave is ahead, one key signal to watch is long-term accumulation. If long-term holders start to steadily accumulate Bitcoin, it could provide meaningful support for a price rebound in the coming months.

Fundamentals

Blockrise offers comprehensive care with its asset management strategy called "Fundamentals." This strategy involves managing assets in Bitcoin versus an euro position, reassessing and adjusting these positions monthly.

While the broader market pulled back in November, we took a different path. As prices fell and uncertainty grew, our investment strategy responded by increasing Bitcoin exposure. We believe markets are often driven by emotion, greed near the top, fear during corrections. Our approach is designed to move in the opposite direction: we buy when others are cautious and take profits when the market turns euphoric. This disciplined strategy has consistently helped us manage risk and capture long-term value.

Last month, we increased our Bitcoin position three times, with two intermediate rebalances. Each step was based on clear model signals, reacting to opportunity, not emotion. As a result, we outperformed Bitcoin by over 2% in November, highlighting the strategy’s ability to reduce downside volatility during turbulent periods.

Our current portfolio allocation is 92,5% Bitcoin and 7,5% Euro. Should prices continue to rise, we will realise profits in line with our strategy. If further corrections occur, we are prepared to increase our Bitcoin position again.

Markets don’t reward fear or greed, they reward discipline. We remain long on Bitcoin, confident in its long-term potential. Until then, we stay focused, data-driven, and contrarian.

Risk disclosure

🗞 Crypto Highlights

An overview of the most notable events in crypto:

Crypto stocks crash harder than bitcoin

Global markets have undergone a significant correction, with Bitcoin falling over 30% from its all-time high in October. However, the decline in listed crypto-related companies has been even more severe. Many of these stocks experienced outsized gains earlier this year due to high volatility, but that same volatility has now amplified the downside, leading to sharp losses for investors.

Two leveraged ETFs, designed to deliver double the daily return of Strategy’s stock price, have each declined by more than 80% year-to-date. Last Tuesday, American Bitcoin Corp. saw its share price plunge over 51% in just 26 minutes, a stark symbol of the dramatic wipeout that marked the end of 2025.

American Bitcoin Corp. is not alone. Several companies and tokens associated with the Trump family have suffered similar or worse declines. World Liberty Financial’s token (WLFI) has dropped 51% from its September peak. Atl5 Sigma, promoted by members of the Trump family, has fallen 75% amid ongoing legal issues. Meanwhile, meme tokens linked to the former president and Melania Trump have collapsed by 90% and 99%, respectively.

Strategy defends its bitcoin position after market concerns

Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, recently acknowledged that the company may consider selling Bitcoin if its stock falls below net asset value (NAV) and external funding dries up. This statement has raised concerns among investors and analysts, particularly as questions about the sustainability of Strategy’s Bitcoin yield have become more frequent in recent months.

For much of the year, Strategy followed a self-reinforcing model: it issued equity to eager investors, used the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin, and saw its share price rise as a result, enabling the cycle to repeat. But many professional investors are now questioning whether the opposite could also be true: if the company begins selling Bitcoin, could that trigger a negative feedback loop?

The market did not receive Le’s remarks positively. In response to investor concerns, he later clarified that Strategy’s newly secured $1.4 billion reserve is more than sufficient to meet short-term obligations. He also emphasised that the company has no desire to sell its Bitcoin holdings and is instead exploring the option of lending them to generate yield.

The coming months will be a key test of Strategy’s treasury strategy, particularly how it performs under pressure and whether the firm can maintain its Bitcoin-heavy position without triggering further market uncertainty.

🏦 Macro Economy

An overview of relevant global economic events:

Euro-area economic outlook from the European Commission

The latest economic forecast from the European Commission indicates moderate recovery across the euro area. Growth is projected at around 0,9 per cent in 2025 and increasing to approximately 1,4 per cent in 2026. Inflation is expected to decline from 2,4 per cent in 2024 to about 2,1 per cent in 2025, falling further to roughly 1,7 per cent in 2026. This combination of easing inflation and steady growth suggests a period of relatively stable monetary policy. For savers and investors, it implies continued low returns on traditional savings. In such an environment, some investors consider alternative stores of value, including bitcoin, provided it is held with professional and secure custody.

Japan signals imminent rate hike

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has strongly hinted that the central bank is preparing to raise interest rates in the near future. Ueda noted that communication with other government departments has been smooth and that there is no expected resistance to a policy shift. Credit market analysts interpreted the comments as a clear signal, almost a pre-announcement, of a coming rate hike.

Following the announcement, the probability of a rate increase this month surged to 76%, up from expectations of a move in January. The shift comes amid faster-than-anticipated inflation and continued weakness in the Japanese yen. Notably, the yield on Japan’s 2-year government bond (JGB) has climbed back to 1%, a level not seen since 2008.

This development is especially significant given what happened in August: Japan's previous rate hike triggered a sharp sell-off in global equities. Many investors had been borrowing in yen at low rates and investing in higher-yielding U.S. assets. When Japanese rates rose, this carry trade became too expensive, prompting rapid unwinding and a broad-based drop in U.S. stock markets.

As Japan moves closer to ending its ultra-loose monetary policy, global markets may once again face ripple effects.

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