Blockrise Marketupdate - November 2025: An Unexpected October

As October closes with unexpected turbulence, Bitcoin finds itself at the center of a shifting global narrative. From record highs to record liquidations, the market is testing the conviction of long-term holders and the agility of active managers. Meanwhile, institutional interest in Bitcoin as a treasury asset continues to grow, and traditional finance is rapidly adapting to the digital asset era.

In this edition, we break down the latest market movements, share insights from our Fundamentals strategy, and highlight key developments shaping the future of Bitcoin, from macroeconomic shifts to custody innovation and regulatory progress in Europe.

Market Update

A brief analysis on Bitcoin and Blockrise Fundamentals:

Bitcoin Analysis

October closed in the red as Bitcoin decreased by 3,80% over the month. Historically speaking October is a positive month, were nine out of ten years were positive. Notably, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high during October—a positive milestone for long-term holders. However, this peak was swiftly followed by the largest liquidation event in crypto history, triggering a sharp 15% drawdown.

The selling pressure was largely driven by geopolitical developments, particularly the Trump administration’s announcement of a proposed 100% tariff on Chinese imports. This news, combined with profit-taking at the all-time high, led to a rapid market crash that wiped out $17 billion in liquidations within hours.

Currently, Bitcoin’s cost basis indicates strong support around $111,000, while significant supply pressure is observed near $117,000. Seasoned investors are closely watching the outcome of the trade talks between China and the United States the next few weeks, which could set the tone for market sentiment going forward.

Fundamentals

Blockrise offers comprehensive care with its asset management strategy called "Fundamentals." This strategy involves managing assets in Bitcoin versus an euro position, reassessing and adjusting these positions monthly.

Although Bitcoin delivered a negative return in October, the month was characterised by significant volatility. Our investment strategy outperformed Bitcoin, limiting the drawdown to 2.82% through active risk management and timely exposure adjustments. During the sharp liquidation event on October 11th, our model indicated that the decline in Bitcoin’s overvaluation was not yet sufficient to justify a position increase. However, as prices continued to fall in the following week, our investment team raised Bitcoin exposure to 90%. On November 1st, we executed our scheduled monthly rebalance, reducing Bitcoin exposure to 85% and increasing Euro holdings to 15%, in line with our model.

Crypto Highlights

An overview of the most notable events in crypto:

Bitcoin as a treasury asset

An increasing number of companies are exploring the role of Bitcoin within their treasury management strategies. While Bitcoin was once viewed primarily as a speculative investment, it is now increasingly being considered as a long-term reserve asset: comparable to gold, but with greater flexibility and transparency.

The current macroeconomic environment plays an important role: rising government debt, negative real interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty are driving companies to look for alternatives to traditional cash holdings.

In the United States, several publicly listed firms, including MicroStrategy and Semler Scientific, already hold part of their reserves in Bitcoin. Across Europe, interest is growing, with many companies awaiting further regulatory clarity under MiCAR.

Growth in Bitcoin custody solutions

The market for Bitcoin custody is evolving rapidly. Once a niche service, secure digital asset storage is now being developed by an increasing number of banks and wealth managers.

This shift signals Bitcoin’s growing maturity as an asset class: traditional financial institutions are integrating digital assets into their existing infrastructure while complying with stricter regulatory frameworks.

For clients, it means more choice and stronger protection, and for the industry, an important step towards broader institutional adoption.

Macro Economy

An overview of relevant global economic events:

Bond markets under pressure as interest rates stay high

Global bond markets are once again under pressure. Persistently high interest rates are driving steep declines in long-term government bonds, in some cases comparable to the drawdowns seen in 2022. U.S. and European sovereign bonds with maturities of ten years or more have been hit particularly hard.

For investors, this means the traditional “safe haven” is losing its reliability. Where bonds once provided stability within a balanced portfolio, structurally higher rates are now eroding their value.

This reinforces the search for alternative stores of value, assets that are independent of monetary policy and debt markets.

Trump’s tariffs and their impact on European markets

The recent announcement of new U.S. import tariffs on Chinese goods by President Trump has sparked renewed turbulence across global markets. The measures, aimed at protecting domestic industry, are creating volatility in equities and commodities worldwide.

For Europe, the impact is twofold: on one hand, economic pressure from disrupted trade flows; on the other, a strengthening U.S. dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty. Both dynamics weigh on the euro and are driving investors to seek stability beyond the traditional financial system.

In this context, Bitcoin’s role as a borderless, neutral asset becomes increasingly relevant. It serves not only as a hedge against currency volatility but also as a means of capital preservation in a less predictable geopolitical environment.