Blockrise Marketupdate July 2025: Retail Power and Regulatory Pressure

As we move into the second half of 2025, the crypto landscape continues to evolve amid global economic uncertainty, shifting regulations, and dynamic market forces. In this edition, we explore the latest developments in Bitcoin price action, macroeconomic trends, and regulatory updates, including the MiCAR deadline. We also highlight key takeaways from BTC Prague 2025, where our team engaged with industry leaders like Michael Saylor and attended thought-provoking sessions, including Jack Mallers’ keynote.

📈 Market Update

A brief analysis on Bitcoin and Blockrise Fundamentals:

Bitcoin Analysis

The bitcoin price experienced fluctuations of between +4% and -8% over the past month, concluding the period with a decline of -1,66%. Although the bitcoin/euro pair registered a negative return, the bitcoin/dollar pair recorded a positive return of 2%, highlighting the impact of movements in fiat currencies.

No clear directional trend emerged during the month, which was not unexpected given the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the extended tariffs deadline and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As the deadline approaches in July, there is potential for some of this uncertainty to be reduced.

Despite the sideways price action observed in June, the market is currently estimated to hold approximately €1,2 trillion in unrealised profits. Furthermore, the supply held by long-term investors has reached a new all-time high, which may suggest continued interest in holding positions over extended periods.

Fundamentals

Blockrise offers comprehensive care with its asset management strategy called "Fundamentals." This strategy involves managing assets in Bitcoin versus an euro position, reassessing and adjusting these positions monthly.

The bitcoin price experienced some volatility during the month but ultimately remained within the same price range. The underlying fundamentals and market resilience appear promising, reflecting continued confidence among market participants. Nevertheless, short-term corrections may occur as a result of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Although the cost of producing a bitcoin decreased significantly, this reduction did not translate into sufficient overvaluation to realise profits. The portfolio has been rebalanced to its previous allocation, consisting of an 85% position in bitcoin and a 15% position in euros. Over the month, the portfolio recorded a return of -1,42%.

🗞 Crypto Highlights

An overview of the most notable events in crypto:

Circle’s IPO performance

Circle’s initial public offering attracted significant interest from professional investors. The stock price of the second-largest stablecoin provider increased by 168% from its initial price of $31,00. Since its debut on 5 June, the stock has continued to rise, closing on Monday at $178,81.

Since January, the market capitalisation of the stablecoin issued by Circle has expanded by more than 50%, which reflects continued growth in demand. Additionally, large technology companies have shown increasing interest in launching their own stablecoins. Stablecoins, such as those offered by Circle, enable companies to manage the flow of funds within their ecosystems without operating as traditional banks.

Do not underestimate the retail market

Since January 2024, attention has centred on institutional adoption of the Bitcoin ETF. The most successful ETF to date is currently holding $136 billion. In addition to this new investment vehicle for Bitcoin, another prominent topic has been the increasing Bitcoin allocations by well-known companies such as MicroStrategy and Tesla.

While institutional adoption appears promising and represents an important step towards market expansion, it is not a guarantee of continued growth. Historically, institutions have often been significant market participants. Nevertheless, the influence of retail investors should not be overlooked. As the Bitcoin market was largely driven by retail investors during its first decade, their role remains substantial.

Of the approximately 20 million bitcoin mined to date, close to 15 million are held by retail investors. With an estimated 100 million retail investors globally, this equates to an average holding of 0,15 BTC per investor. Compared to other markets, the share of retail investors in Bitcoin is approximately seven times greater than that of businesses and ETFs combined. Although partnerships with institutions often receive considerable attention within the market, the significance of the retail investor segment remains considerable.

🏦 Macro Economy

An overview of relevant global economic events:

Global trade talks stall ahead of tariff deadline

There is one more day left until the country-specific tariffs come back into effect. It seems unlikely that the United States will achieve the broad global trade reforms it aimed for during the three-month suspension.

Agreements with at least twelve of the US’s largest trading partners are expected to be completed before the 9 July deadline. The current agreements with China and the United Kingdom may provide an indication. These deals are likely to cover only a limited number of topics and many important points will probably be negotiated at a later stage.

The White House is expected to present certain figures and a framework. It will describe these as “trade deals”, although they may not meet the usual understanding of a comprehensive agreement. In essence, such trade agreements often require more time to be fully developed. Reaching broad consensus among the involved parties also takes time.

AFM’s MiCAR deadline is reached

The grace period during which companies holding an existing crypto licence were permitted to operate has ended. As of 1 July, companies providing certain services, such as custody of assets on behalf of clients, are required to hold a MiCAR licence. Without this european crypto licence, companies are no longer authorised to operate within Europe.

In the Netherlands, a number of companies, including Bitvavo, have successfully obtained their licences. The AFM is actively assessing other companies to determine whether they meet the requirements for authorisation. At present, there is a group of companies that have not yet secured their licences but remain in the process of applying. The AFM will evaluate these firms based on a risk-based approach to assess their compliance with MiCAR regulations.

From a regulatory perspective, it will be noteworthy to observe which companies ultimately meet the licensing requirements and how this outcome may influence the Dutch crypto landscape.