Blockrise Marketupdate - October 2025: A Green Uptober?

September was a month of renewed momentum in the crypto sector, with Bitcoin showing resilience and institutional interest reaching new highs. From record-breaking hash rates to billion-euro ETF inflows, the market continues to evolve rapidly. Meanwhile, macroeconomic decisions and surprising moves, like a major football club adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet, highlight the growing intersection between digital assets and traditional finance.

In this update, we explore key market movements and broader economic signals shaping the crypto sector. Whether you're tracking our portfolio strategy or observing the shifting tides of adoption, this month offers plenty of insights worth unpacking.

Market Update

A brief analysis on Bitcoin and Blockrise Fundamentals:

Bitcoin Analysis

In September, Bitcoin saw a monthly increase of over 5%, fluctuating between approximately -2% and +7%. This volatility was largely influenced by selling activity from short-term holders, defined as investors who have held Bitcoin for less than six months. On-chain data suggests that the average acquisition price for these holders was close to €92,000, which appeared to act as a key support level during the month. A drop below this threshold could have triggered further selling, as some investors may have sought to limit unrealised losses.

Toward the end of the month, the market reacted to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The event led to a classic “buy the rumour, sell the news” scenario, with Bitcoin briefly peaking at €100.000 before retracing to around €93.000. This post-FOMC decline was primarily driven by profit-taking among long-term holders, those who have held Bitcoin for an extended period. Historically, significant distribution by long-term holders has coincided with later stages of market cycles and may indicate a shift in capital allocation.

Fundamentals

Blockrise offers comprehensive care with its asset management strategy called "Fundamentals." This strategy involves managing assets in Bitcoin versus an euro position, reassessing and adjusting these positions monthly.

Bitcoin delivered a positive return of +5,63% in September, marking a notable improvement compared to August. While the investment team was able to increase exposure near the monthly low, the overall performance from Fundamentals was slightly more modest, resulting in a net performance of +4,78%.

On the network side, Bitcoin’s hash rate continued its upward trajectory, reaching a new all-time high. This increase has led to a corresponding rise in mining difficulty, which is expected to set another record on October 2nd. These developments reflect growing computational activity on the network.

In light of these dynamics, the portfolio allocation remains unchanged at 85% Bitcoin exposure and 15% Euro exposure. Although the market price has risen, so too have underlying network costs. As a result, the relative valuation of Bitcoin has remained broadly stable.

Crypto Highlights

An overview of the most notable events in crypto:

Record capital flowing into Bitcoin via ETFs

In recent weeks, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen record inflows, with a cumulative $2.3 billion entering the market during the week of September 10–14, 2025. Daily inflows reached $741 million, $552 million, and $642 million on September 10, 11, and 12, respectively. This marks a significant shift in the adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors. The increased inflow increases liquidity and makes the market more accessible to a wide range of investors.

At the same time, this development also brings new dynamics. Dependence on capital flows from institutional parties can cause price movements to be driven more by inflows or outflows rather than organic demand. This creates tension between greater stability and the risk of increased volatility at turning points.

For European investors, this shows that the role of regulated products in the crypto market is growing. It increases the likelihood that similar developments will follow in Europe, which could further strengthen access to and confidence in digital assets.

Companies purchase more Bitcoin daily than is mined

Recent data shows that companies worldwide purchase an average of 1.755 Bitcoin per day, while approximately 450 Bitcoin are mined daily. In other words, institutional demand far exceeds new supply, causing available supply on the market to slowly decline.

This development illustrates how strongly the role of institutional investors in the Bitcoin market has grown. While supply remains limited, the shirt in demand patterns may eventually affect pricing and market sentiment. For observers of the crypto market, this offers a clear example of how scarcity and increasing demand influence each other in an emerging asset class.

Macro Economy

An overview of relevant global economic events:

ECB keeps interest rates steady amid inflationary pressures

The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to leave its policy interest rate unchanged at 2,15%, despite inflation in the eurozone remaining above target. This highlights the challenge facing the ECB: maintaining price stability while supporting economic growth.

Keeping interest rates at this level means that financing costs for businesses and households remain predictable. For businesses, this means that investments in capital and expansion can be better planned, while households can keep their borrowing costs stable in the short term. At the same time, inflationary pressures remain a concern, prompting market participants to closely monitor the ECB’s policy decisions.

In the financial markets, stable interest rates can lead to limited volatility in bonds and other interest-rate-sensitive assets. Investors are using this period to evaluate their strategies and assess risks, as future policy changes, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, could have a direct impact on returns and capital flows.

Football club Paris Saint Germain now holds Bitcoin

Paris Saint-Germain Football Club, one of the largest clubs in the world, has announced that it will hold Bitcoin as part of its financial policy. This move sees the club join a broader trend of organisations adding digital assets to their balance sheets.

This step emphasises the growing role of Bitcoin outside the traditional financial sector. The fact that an internationally visible football club has made this choice may contribute to the further normalisation and social acceptance of digital assets.