Market Update June 2025: Market Momentum meets Macro Pressure

As the crypto sector continues to evolve, June opens with a mix of historic milestones and cautionary signals. From Bitcoin reclaiming its all-time high to Circle’s long-awaited IPO, the intersection between digital assets and traditional finance is deepening. Meanwhile, concerns over data security, US debt stability, and macroeconomic pressure on the dollar highlight the complexity behind today’s market dynamics.

In this monthly newsletter, we explore the key developments shaping sentiment, from rising hash rates and institutional interest to the shifting behaviour of long-term Bitcoin holders. Whether you're a seasoned investor or seeking context in a rapidly maturing market, our aim is to provide clarity, insight, and perspective.

📈 Market Update

A brief analysis on Bitcoin and Blockrise Fundamentals:

Bitcoin Analysis

May marked a major milestone as the Bitcoin price returned to its all-time high, last reached in January. The upward momentum has been largely driven by long-term holders, who continue to accumulate, while short-term holders have not introduced significant selling pressure.

Interestingly, despite the price gradually approaching its all-time high, long-term holders are still in accumulation mode. This may signal a potential market reset, where the price is at historic levels, but many investors are not yet sitting on substantial profits.

Fundamentals

Blockrise offers comprehensive care with its asset management strategy called "Fundamentals." This strategy involves managing assets in Bitcoin versus a euro position, reassessing and adjusting these positions monthly.

Over the past month, Bitcoin's hash rate has increased significantly. Despite the fact that the price was €6,000 higher this month compared to last month, the level of overvaluation remained the same.

This is due to the rising hash rate, which has made mining Bitcoin more expensive. In this case, higher production costs justify a higher market price without changing the underlying valuation.

As a result, we have maintained our current allocation: 85% in Bitcoin and 15% in euros.

If the hash rate continues to rise and reaches a new all-time high, the investment team will explore opportunities to reduce risk. Conversely, if growth slows, we may consider increasing our exposure to Bitcoin again.

🗞 Crypto Highlights

An overview of the most notable events in crypto:

Coinbase data breach raises concerns

Coinbase has now joined the growing list of crypto companies affected by data breaches. Just three days after being added to the S&P 500, the company disclosed a leak that sent its stock down nearly 8%. While not the most financially damaging breach in the industry, the nature of the exposed data has sparked serious concerns, especially among large-balance investors.

According to reports, hackers maintained prolonged access to some of Coinbase’s most sensitive customer data since January. For high-net-worth individuals, this goes far beyond a standard breach. With access to personal data, hackers can trace wallet activity across networks, link transactions, and estimate an investor’s total crypto holdings, even those held outside Coinbase.

Given the growing trend of targeted attacks and even kidnappings of prominent traders, the breach highlights an uncomfortable truth: digital asset privacy is now a critical component of personal security.

Circle prepares for IPO amid growing institutional interest

After years of signalling its intention to go public, Circle is finally set to launch its IPO on the 5th of June. The company behind USDC has increased its share offering by 33% ahead of the listing, a move that appears to be driven by strong institutional demand.

According to filings, BlackRock is reportedly aiming to acquire a 10% stake, while ARK Investment Management plans to purchase $150 million in shares. This level of interest from established financial institutions reflects the increasing convergence between traditional finance and the crypto sector.

Circle’s public debut follows the path of other major players like Coinbase, now a member of the S&P 500, and marks another step in the legitimisation of crypto infrastructure within mainstream capital markets.

🏦 Macro Economy

An overview of relevant global economic events:

Dollar under pressure

The US dollar moved toward a three-year low this week following weaker than expected manufacturing data, adding to growing concerns over the pace of economic growth. The figures point to a broader slowdown in the industrial sector, exacerbated by ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and trade policy.

This disappointing data further undermined the dollar’s already fragile momentum. In response, bond markets reacted sharply, with yields on 30-year US Treasury bonds rising by 3 basis points to 4,97%, reflecting increased investor caution.

For global markets and crypto investors alike, a weakening dollar often reshapes capital flows and hedging strategies, especially as confidence in traditional monetary systems continues to fluctuate.

US reassures “We will never default”

As concerns grow over the long-term stability of US public finances, Scott Bessent, former hedge fund manager and now a key figure in the Treasury, has sought to reassure markets. Speaking directly to investor fears, Bessent stated confidently that the US government will “never default” on its debt.

His comments come amid heightened anxiety on Wall Street, fuelled by persistent deficits, rising borrowing costs, and market unease over trade tariffs. While Bessent entered the role with strong industry support, notable figures like JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon have increasingly voiced concern about the health of the bond market and the scale of national debt.

Investor jitters remain, particularly as policy uncertainty continues to ripple through global markets. But for now, Bessent’s statement aims to calm nerves and reaffirm the US government's commitment to its financial obligations.